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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈUS Markets

ALCOA CORP

AA

CIK 0001675149 Β· Quarterly mode Β· latest period FY2025 (Q4) (ending 2025-12-31) Β· sourced from SEC EDGAR

At a glance Β· FY2025 (Q4)

Revenue
$3.45B
↓-1.1% -$37Mvs FY2024 (Q4)
Operating Income
$332M
↓-34.0% -$171Mvs FY2024 (Q4)
Net Income
$68M
Gross Profit
$576M
↓-25.4% -$196Mvs FY2024 (Q4)

Quality Score

Quality score

6-dimension fundamental snapshot Β· latest annual filed values Β· S&P 500 calibration

Weak
31/100
  • Profitability
    0Insufficient data
  • Liquidity
    47Current Ratio 1.44 (above 1.5 = solid)
  • Leverage
    80D/E 0.40 (under 0.5 = conservative)
  • Efficiency
    46Asset Turnover 0.80x (1.0+ = capital-efficient)
  • Growth
    13Revenue YoY -1.1% (10% = solid, 25%+ = elite)
  • Margin Trend
    0Insufficient data

Calibrated to S&P 500 medians. Each sub-score is computed from a single CFA-grade ratio (Profitability = ROIC, Liquidity = Current Ratio, Leverage = D/E, Efficiency = Asset Turnover, Growth = Revenue YoY, Margin Trend = 4Q operating-margin avg vs prior 4Q). Overall = simple mean.

DCF intrinsic value

DCF intrinsic value

two-stage Gordon model

Project AA's free cash flow forward, discount back at your hurdle rate, divide by diluted shares. Edit the assumptions to see how sensitive the intrinsic value is.

18%

Trailing 3-yr CAGR was 18.4%

10%

10% is a common all-equity benchmark for US large-caps

2.5%

Should be ≀ long-run GDP growth (~2.5% nominal)

5

5-year explicit projection + perpetuity terminal

Intrinsic value per share
$55.65
Total enterprise IV
$14.52B
Diluted shares
0.26B
Terminal PV
$11.01B (76% of total)
Year-5 FCF
$1.30B
YearProjected FCFDiscounted PV
+1$669M$608M
+2$789M$652M
+3$932M$700M
+4$1.10B$751M
+5$1.30B$805M
Terminal$17.73B$11.01B

DCF outputs are HIGHLY sensitive to growth + WACC assumptions. A 1pp WACC change can shift IV by 20%+. Use this as a sanity-check vs market price, not a target β€” and always cross-check the underlying FCF source (EDGAR cashflow statement, latest annual). Margin of safety convention: 30-50% discount to IV before buying.

Capital allocation Β· trailing 4 quarters

how the company spent its cash
Capex (TTM)
$618M
investment in PP&E
Dividends paid (TTM)
$104M
cash returned to holders
Stock buybacks (TTM)
β€”
share count reduction
Stock-based comp (TTM)
$41M
non-cash dilution

Balance sheet Β· 2025-12-31

latest filed snapshot
Total assets
$16.13B
everything owned
Total liabilities
$9.94B
everything owed
Stockholders' equity
$6.12B
shareholder claim
Net debt
$842M
LT debt minus cash

Recent performance Β· 42 quarters

Revenue↓-1.1% -$37M
$3.45B
Net Income
$213M
Free Cash Flow↑+19.5% +$48M
$294M

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