GREEN PLAINS INC.

GPRE

CIK 0001309402 · Quarterly mode · latest period FY2025 (Q4) (ending 2025-12-31) · sourced from SEC EDGAR

At a glance · FY2025 (Q4)

Revenue
$429M
↓-26.6% -$155Mvs FY2024 (Q4)
Gross Profit
$40M
↑+552.8% +$34Mvs FY2024 (Q4)

Quality Score

Quality score

6-dimension fundamental snapshot · latest annual filed values · S&P 500 calibration

Weak
39/100
  • Profitability
    0ROIC -4.4% (10% = solid, 20%+ = moat)
  • Liquidity
    65Current Ratio 1.79 (above 1.5 = solid)
  • Leverage
    76D/E 0.49 (under 0.5 = conservative)
  • Efficiency
    80Asset Turnover 1.24x (1.0+ = capital-efficient)
  • Growth
    0Revenue YoY -26.6% (10% = solid, 25%+ = elite)
  • Margin Trend
    11Op Margin 6.7% · trend -2.3pts (4Q avg vs prior 4Q)

Calibrated to S&P 500 medians. Each sub-score is computed from a single CFA-grade ratio (Profitability = ROIC, Liquidity = Current Ratio, Leverage = D/E, Efficiency = Asset Turnover, Growth = Revenue YoY, Margin Trend = 4Q operating-margin avg vs prior 4Q). Overall = simple mean.

DCF intrinsic value

DCF intrinsic value

two-stage Gordon model

Project GPRE's free cash flow forward, discount back at your hurdle rate, divide by diluted shares. Edit the assumptions to see how sensitive the intrinsic value is.

8%

Trailing CAGR unavailable; default 8%

10%

10% is a common all-equity benchmark for US large-caps

2.5%

Should be ≤ long-run GDP growth (~2.5% nominal)

5

5-year explicit projection + perpetuity terminal

Intrinsic value per share
$18.77
Total enterprise IV
$1.27B
Diluted shares
0.07B
Terminal PV
$918M (72% of total)
Year-5 FCF
$108M
YearProjected FCFDiscounted PV
+1$80M$72M
+2$86M$71M
+3$93M$70M
+4$100M$68M
+5$108M$67M
Terminal$1.48B$918M

DCF outputs are HIGHLY sensitive to growth + WACC assumptions. A 1pp WACC change can shift IV by 20%+. Use this as a sanity-check vs market price, not a target — and always cross-check the underlying FCF source (EDGAR cashflow statement, latest annual). Margin of safety convention: 30-50% discount to IV before buying.

Capital allocation · trailing 4 quarters

how the company spent its cash
Capex (TTM)
$37M
investment in PP&E
Dividends paid (TTM)
$721K
cash returned to holders
Stock buybacks (TTM)
$19M
share count reduction
Stock-based comp (TTM)
$17M
non-cash dilution

Balance sheet · 2025-12-31

latest filed snapshot
Total assets
$1.58B
everything owned
Total liabilities
$806M
everything owed
Stockholders' equity
$766M
shareholder claim
Net debt
$192M
LT debt minus cash

Recent performance · 63 quarters

Revenue↓-26.6% -$155M
$429M
Net Income↓-75.3% -$36M
$12M
Free Cash Flow↑+327.5% +$89M
$62M
Operating Margin↓-1.8pts
6.7%

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